Auto industry pros counter electric-car hype
DETROIT--The future of autos is electric. Or is it?
Even though the new big thing in the auto industry is electric cars, there is not a clear consensus on how big of a role electric vehicles will play in the coming years.
Auto and utility industry executives at the Business of Plugging In conference here today took pains to point out the significant hurdles to adoption that plug-in vehicles face in becoming mainstream.
In addition to the higher cost of components, such as batteries, there is also the question of building a charging infrastructure in public places and the customers' overall experience with electric cars.
That's not to say that electric vehicles aren't real. Aided heavily by government incentives for consumers and manufacturers, electric cars designed for everyday use, such as the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Volt, will start to be delivered in the coming months, with many more types of plug-in vehicles planned for release in the next two years.
But whether plug-ins will inhabit a niche, as current hybrids do, or reach beyond the two percent of "early adopters" is the open question today.
On a panel discussion, a Toyota executive projected that sales of EVs will be at most two percent of sales by 2020, while Nissan said that 10 percent of all car sales is possible. Regardless of the projected percentage, nobody seems to think that EV adoption will be quick and easy.
"Whether it's 3 percent by 2020 or 10 percent still has to be seen...but there is a very long way to go before we get a significant percentage of pure plug-in vehicles in the market," said Neil Armstrong, president of Mercedes-Benz research and development in North America.
Even though the new big thing in the auto industry is electric cars, there is not a clear consensus on how big of a role electric vehicles will play in the coming years.
Auto and utility industry executives at the Business of Plugging In conference here today took pains to point out the significant hurdles to adoption that plug-in vehicles face in becoming mainstream.
In addition to the higher cost of components, such as batteries, there is also the question of building a charging infrastructure in public places and the customers' overall experience with electric cars.
That's not to say that electric vehicles aren't real. Aided heavily by government incentives for consumers and manufacturers, electric cars designed for everyday use, such as the Nissan Leaf and Chevy Volt, will start to be delivered in the coming months, with many more types of plug-in vehicles planned for release in the next two years.
But whether plug-ins will inhabit a niche, as current hybrids do, or reach beyond the two percent of "early adopters" is the open question today.
On a panel discussion, a Toyota executive projected that sales of EVs will be at most two percent of sales by 2020, while Nissan said that 10 percent of all car sales is possible. Regardless of the projected percentage, nobody seems to think that EV adoption will be quick and easy.
"Whether it's 3 percent by 2020 or 10 percent still has to be seen...but there is a very long way to go before we get a significant percentage of pure plug-in vehicles in the market," said Neil Armstrong, president of Mercedes-Benz research and development in North America.
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